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BY JONATHAN BLUM, KAGAN
There was a day when the world was divided between those who grew up with TV and those who didn't. Today, that divide is between those who grew up with Nickelodeon and those who didn't. Along with sports and music, kids programming is one of cable's founding genres. Since the beginning of the modern MSO era in the 1980s, fabulously creative cable kids programmers recast the media landscape for children with great success. Overall subscribers continue to grow to this day.
This success, however, may be reaching a practical limit. Buoyed by a ?there-will-always-be-more-children? logic to kids programming, at least ten different cable services vie with about a dozen broadcasters and syndicators for the children's dollar; this multiplicity of choices is fragmenting the children's audience. Though the average total revenue for the big three ad-supported networks ? Nickelodeon, Cartoon Network and ABC Family ? remains very attractive at about $565 million, if smaller services like Discovery Kids and G4 are factored in, it changes. The grouping's average total revenue falls by about 38% to about $345 million and net ad revenue falls by about 40%.
These revenue projections factor in the commercial-free status of the Disney Channel. Imagine what happens when Michael Eisner and Anne Sweeney pull the short-term revenue trigger and open that service to advertising. Forget Nick Too. Kids services will be called Nick Glut.
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