Putting personal video recorders into cable set-top boxes may be more difficult and more expensive than some in the industry are letting on.

Representatives from several companies squared off on the timing and costs at a recent Silicon Valley forum on home networking, sponsored by IBD Network, and in follow-up interviews.

To be sure, some box makers have already introduced models that include a hard drive for storing and pausing video. Motorola is including PVR capacity in its higher 5000 series boxes, and Scientific-Atlanta is incorporating the technology into its 8000 series.

And Moxi Digital, a new company that has had some problems since unveiling its set-top design to mostly rave reviews at the Consumer Electronics Show earlier this year in Las Vegas, sees PVRs as an integral part of boxes going forward.

?There is no question in my mind that five years from now we are all going to have hard drives in our set-top boxes,? says Eric Roza, VP of product management for Moxi. ?But the PVR has failed as a stand-alone product.?

The Moxi model involves incorporating PVR ? as well as home networking ? capacity into a set-top box, which then spreads the service to other televisions through small wireless receivers at the other sets, for what Moxi says is about $500 to $600 for two sets.

?Most satellite boxes are going to be shipped with a PVR in 18 months, and cable will do the same, but more slowly,? Roza says, adding that the technology can be built into set-tops for $100 to $200.

Sean Baenen, managing director of Odyssey Research, which studies consumer behavior, strongly disagrees with Roza's optimism on PVRs, which require hard drives to function.

?I don't agree that in five years necessarily there is going to be a hard drive serving everything in everybody's house,? Baenen says. ?I believe a lot of that is executional.? PVRs have failed largely because they have been poorly marketed and because many people fail to see the need for them, he says.

And Harshul Sanghi, general manager of satellite set-top boxes for Philips Digital Networks, which counts DirecTV among its customers, says that in the short run, PVRs in set-tops are likely to be a lot more expensive than Moxi's model, which he notes hasn't been manufactured and has only been developed in laboratories.

?Right now, to add PVR capacity to existing set-top boxes, would cost three times that $200 figure ? about $600 ? depending on what you call PVR functionality,? says Sanghi.

He points out that unsubsidized stand-alone PVRs now for sale at retail outlets cost $1,000 or more. An 80-megabit hard drive alone costs $70, he says, and that's only the beginning of what a PVR requires.

Sanghi emphasizes that the price will eventually come down as Philips and the other box manufacturers refine the technology, but he says that will take at least two more years.

And even then, cable operators may have to subsidize the more expensive box, warns Sanghi.

Philips right now sells a high-end PVR-enabled DirecTV box through Circuit City and other retailers for a list price of $399, but that box is subsidized by DirecTV, which gains a customer with each sale.

?That's what people tend to forget,? he says. ?The price may be lower, but somebody's paying for that damn subsidy.?

TiVo is offering its next-generation PVR for sale at a lower price, but Sanghi says that company is selling the boxes at cost to build a customer base.

?Don't get me wrong. I think PVRs are in set-top boxes to stay,? he says. ?But I think it's a matter of time and a question of how widespread it will be, because it depends on how much the MSOs are willing to subsidize.?

Back to this issue