The Show Must Go On

BY K. C. NEEL

There's no business like show business ? except, perhaps, for the National Cable & Telecommunications Association, which is looking at a 9% dip in attendance for its annual convention in Chicago next week.

Nearly every cable trade show has struggled in the last couple of years. Many programmers have yanked their exhibitions after years of extravagant spending to woo operators. In the late ?90s, technical and dot-com companies helped pick up the slack. But this year even that group is holding back. Indeed, a few companies that exhibited at last year's NCTA Show in New Orleans are no longer even in business.

Tech stalwarts like Cisco Systems and Nortel Networks are pulling the plug on the NCTA Show after reporting dismal first-quarter earnings. Some major exhibitors, such as struggling Lucent Technologies, have scaled down their booth size significantly. Other tech no-shows include Accelorate TV, AT&T Interactive Offerings Group, Excite, Road Runner, Harmonic, ICTV, Interactive Channel, Peach Networks, Replay TV, Respond TV, Sun Microsystems, ZDTV and Zenith Electronics.

On the programming side, Starz/Encore ? which usually spent lavishly on booths and exhibits ? stunned NCTA officials in May by announcing the company would pull out of the show. Even heavyweights like Showtime Networks are in full retrenchment mode.

What's up? Clearly, consolidation and the maturity of the industry are taking their toll. As the cable business consolidates into a few big companies, many exhibitors are beginning to reevaluate the effectiveness of trade shows. After all, they reason, why spend the time, money and resources to woo a handful of executives?

That view, combined with a slowing economy, is enough to give industry officials pause.

The reductions are ?directly attributable to what's happening in the economy, particularly in the technology sector,? says NCTA president Robert Sachs.

For those who remain the scale may be cut back considerably, although not all the fun is gone. Exhibitors can easily shell out $1 million or more, depending on booth size, the number of executives in attendance, parties and organized-labor costs. While some of the parties and free gifts might not be as impressive as in the past, NCTA has managed to sign up some 248 exhibitors to fill about 282,000 square feet in Chicago's McCormick Place Convention Center. The expected attendance of 30,000 visitors is off about 9% from last year's attendance of 33,000.

NCTA officials have taken pains to address some of the lingering gripes about the show. McCormick's square configuration, they say, will make it easier for attendees to walk the floor without feeling like they're schlepping through a giant gymnasium. Officials have also tried to schedule events at more convenient times and locations. Two years ago, when the show was last in Chicago, attendees who wanted to go to general sessions had to hightail it to the Lakeside Ballroom ? located clear across the convention center from the exhibition floor.

The resulting complaints prompted NCTA officials to switch the general sessions to the main ballroom, just to the right of the main entrance of McCormick Place, a much more accessible location for most attendees. Only the Chairman's Reception on June 11 will be held in the Lakeside Ballroom.

?It's got such a lovely view of Lake Michigan,? explains NCTA VP Barbara York.

The list of speakers will also change. In a testament to the changing face of the industry, sessions will be filled with such digital apostles as Cox Communications EVP Pat Esser, Insight Communications COO Kim Kelly and AT&T Broadband CEO Dan Somers. But some perennial NCTA draws, like Liberty Media chairman John Malone, USA Networks chairman Barry Diller and AOL Time Warner vice chairman Ted Turner, aren't slated to speak this year.

Some industry players are even expecting a more somber tone at this year's affair. For years cable operators have promised Wall Street and Main Street advanced products that will revolutionize the way people watch TV and surf the Web. Now they must deliver on those promises. But an unstable economy, serious competition and the threat of regulation of new services such as interactivity are affecting the delivery of these services.

The show starts June 10 with a general session that includes Bodenheimer, Esser, Kelly, Cablevision Systems SVP Pat Falese; Comcast Cable president Steve Burke and CableLabs president Dick Green. Moderated by CTAM president Char Beales, the executives will set the tone for the show by analyzing general issues affecting the business.

The next general session, on June 11, will be preceded by a speech by FCC chairman Michael Powell. This marks a departure from previous shows, at which the FCC chairman has generally spoken to industry leaders at a private, invitation-only breakfast. Afterward, CNBC anchor Sue Herera will pose questions to AT&T Corp. CEO Michael Armstrong, Viacom president Mel Karmazin and Comcast Corp. president Brian Roberts on various industry issues.

The June 12 general session will feature CNN senior analyst Jeff Greenfield interviewing Lifetime president Carole Black, A&E president Nick Davatzes, Microsoft SVP Jon DeVaan, AT&T's Somers, Wink Communications president Maggie Wilderotter and Insight Communications president Michael Willner.

Details for the last general session of the show, also on June 12, have yet to be worked out. But the session will focus on programming issues and feature several content company executives and will be moderated by CNN's Larry King. That session will precede the annual Vanguard Awards presentation and luncheon, at which honorees receive one of the industry's highest honors. Winners this year include:

• Distinguished leadership: AOL Time Warner CEO Gerald Levin and Insight's Kelly.

• Young Leadership: ESPN SVP-affiliate sales Sean Bratches and Fox Family SVP/GM Tracy Lawrence.

• Programmers: HBO chairman Jeff Bewkes.

• Associates and affiliates: Kane Reece Associates principal Norval Reece.

• Science and technology: Time Warner Cable VP-advanced engineering Michael Hayashi.

• Cable-operations management: Comcast's Burke.

• Government and community relations: Cox Communications VP-GM Bill Geppert.

• Marketing: Insight SVP-marketing Pamela Euler Halling.

A new addition is a panel session during which several mayors from around the nation will discuss cable and the role it plays in their respective communities. Los Angeles Times reporter Sallie Hofmeister, widely praised for her stewardship of a panel last year, will return with a panel focusing on the cable industry and the press. USA Today reporter David Leiberman will join her. FCC commissioners Harold Furchtgott-Roth, Susan Ness and Gloria Tristani will speak during a session on June 12.

Top congressional leaders will put in appearances as well. House speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) will cut the ribbon at the opening of the exhibition floor. And the newly crowned Senate majority leader, Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), will address invited guests at NCTA's public-policy luncheon.

Technical sessions will focus on such issues as set-top boxes, billing, headend consolidation and bandwidth management. Marketing, advertising and programming panels will also be featured, as will a panel of industry consultants who will assess the future of cable broadband. A group of Wall Street analysts will discuss the volatile stock market and how it's affecting the cable business.

Longtime attendees will notice some new amenities. NCTA has developed something dubbed the Cable Courtyard ? a Barnes & Noble-like area at the convention hall's entrance where attendees can read industry publications, grab a cup of coffee and read e-mail on one of 28 cable-modem hookups, provided by local cable operator AT&T Broadband.

The idea is to ?provide a feeling of intimacy that we've lacked since the show has gotten so large,? York says.

At press time, NCTA was sorting through each exhibitor's plans for celebrity entertainment and appearances. But there will be the usual crush of parties, most of them with strict invitation-only policies. Viacom will throw a bash at the House of Blues June 11, and Hallmark hosts its shindig the following night.

But perhaps the biggest party won't happen at all.

NCTA officials originally considered a blowout honoring the 50th anniversary of the show. But then researchers consulted archives that showed that while the first cable convention was indeed held in 1951, NCTA itself was not actually formed until the following year.

That means, officials say, that attendees will just have to wait till next year.