QUIET, GENIUS AT WORK

BY VERNE GAY

There's cause for celebration and concern every time a new series makes its debut on HBO. Celebration, because the first thought is usually: What have those programming geniuses brought us now! Concern, because the second thought is usually: What if those geniuses brought us a flounder!

In the 30-year history of HBO, flounders have done most of their flopping on the major commercial networks. Who among us can point to a single original HBO series and declare with absolute certainty: ?That stunk.?

Tanner '88? That was a groundbreaking novelty, designed to last for one season. First & Ten, Arli$$ or Dream On? Not my favorites, but maybe yours. Sessions (1991) is long forgotten and perhaps deservedly so, but it was hardly a catastrophe, on the order of Pink Lady & Jeff or Supertrain. The Mind of the Married Man flopped around for a while but HBO still got a couple seasons out of it. The Wire may be obtuse but those few who actually seem to understand it insist this is the greatest TV series of all time.

No, HBO has done a brilliant job over the years of convincing us ? and, of course, critics ? that it can do no wrong in that most tricky genre of them all, original series programming. This naturally is a mixed blessing. HBO has determined that most new subscribers come to the service because of originals while the old-timers have stuck around over the years because of theatricals. As such, original series are the bedrock of HBO's future. In the hearts and minds of critics and hard-to-lure new subscribers, that's all that matters ? not the 12th repeat of My Big Fat Greek Wedding.

Nevertheless, there's always that nagging doubt. What if the next new HBO series is a flounder?

And so, Sept. 14 was one of the more important days in recent HBO history. Carnivàle, the new 12-parter produced by Daniel Knauf, about a group of dust-bowl carnies and the mysterious faith healer in their midst, and K Street ? George Clooney and Steven Soderbergh's quasi-reality/quasi-sitcom/quasi-something-else-altogether half hour on D.C. lobbyists ? both premiered. And they premiered at a time when HBO customarily stands down: the beginning of the fall TV season. Both arrived loaded with the usual baggage, and then some.

Like any new original series on HBO these days, they unwittingly become part of the Big Picture, which is this: Sex and the City ends its seven-season run early next year in an abbreviated eight-episode burst, and then The Sopranos begins its penultimate season (most likely in March). The single most successful series in the HBO firmament then wraps for good in 2005.

There's more to this Big Picture (always is) and at this juncture, we add the dark and fateful tones of a Goya, or (better yet) a Munch. Larry David's brilliant Curb Your Enthusiasm returns next year, and will almost certainly achieve much-deserved breakout-hit status. But, well, you know Larry. One suspects he's just a little nervous with the moniker ?breakout-hit status? and after five splendid seasons, he too may be thinking about his next move. Six Feet Under is back in the summer, but there are some who believe creator Alan Ball is planning to wrap his Emmy-winning creation in a couple of seasons or sooner.

You get the idea: The entire future of HBO rests on the still fragile shoulders of Carnivàle and K Street.

That is nonsense, but it is certainly the assessment of some people in the critical community. ?What have you done for us lately, HBO?? is now regularly asked with some urgency. Everything out of the box, HBO, must be absolutely brilliant, absolutely the freshest, most original, most exciting series that ever was.

In common parlance, this is called a no-win situation.

This isn't fair, but as HBO chief Chris Albrecht and his lieutenants well know, this isn't a business of fairness but of managing expectations. And to this point, HBO has done a better job of managing expectations than any other entity in television. This has been accomplished, in part, through luck (The Sopranos, after all, was developed for commercial TV) and with the understanding that if you give a highly talented and disciplined producer enough time and enough creative freedom then he or she will eventually turn in something that is both compelling and original. The latter part of this formulation is obvious but has far too often been lost on those who run the Big Four.

How well is HBO managing expectations right at this moment? To be sure, it's a tough job under the best of circumstances, and in TV it's almost impossible to strike the right balance all of the time. Paradoxically, big hits cause the most trouble, and The Sopranos has set the delicate pendulum on a wobble. For the better part of two decades, NBC had no choice but to find a replacement for Cosby and Cheers; it was what was expected, and failure was not an option. Now, NBC must find a replacement for Friends. Audiences expect it. GE shareholders expect it. Failure is not an option.

Finding a replacement for the irreplaceable Sopranos is of course impossible, but subscribers, cable operators, newspaper critics, Dick Parsons and a million other Time Warner constituents don't want to hear that. How on earth do you manage their expectations?

In managing expectations, there may well be a temptation to fall into some of the same patterns, or traps, that other major networks have fallen into. For instance, there's a nagging suspicion among some that Carnivàle and K Street bowed in mid-September because that's when the networks' fall season begins, and best to get some sampling before the fall launches of the Big Four. This seems like a reasonable notion, but for HBO, it's pure apostasy. It suggests that HBO ? which has always had the posture of being above it all ? is playing by the rank rules of commercial TV. That's a loaded charge because by its own admission, HBO isn't TV. It's HBO, and HBO plays by its own rules. Albrecht addressed this at a recent press tour in Hollywood when he said, ?If anything, what we're realizing is that we shouldn't feel any pressure to do that because those are arbitrary expectations that have been set up by a business that's struggling to maintain its own model. So, for us to try and adapt ourselves to something that's not working is probably not the smartest thing for us? to do.

He also addressed the suspicion that by dramatically delaying the premiere of The Sopranos he has bought time for new shows. After all, who would drop HBO now with two seasons of The Sopranos remaining? ?We're more interested in keeping up the quality of the show, and keeping HBO feeling like an exciting place, where there's always something coming on and there's the anticipation of what's going to come next.?

To take some of the heat off the series development process, HBO has now pretty much ditched the idea of launching a new night of originals. The pay service will stay focused on Sundays, which is a smart idea for a couple of reasons. Foremost, Sundays on HBO has emerged as branded strategy in its own right. Sunday is a destination night: Why muddy the image by dropping original series on, say, Wednesday night, too?

Expansion would force HBO into the broadcast game as well. If you're going to do originals on Thursday, then you'll have to figure out how to counterprogram C.S.I. and Survivor. That'd be a headache for subscribers, and a migraine for executives.

Another good reason not to expand: That instantly removes pressure from the already-pressured development process. HBO's creative model is best suited to one night, and one night only. The reason is that shows are exclusively, or almost exclusively, the product of their creators, and once the creators take their leave, so does the show. There's one exception to this ? Michael Patrick King took over at Sex early in its run after Darren Star left ? but for the most part, HBO originals are a reflection of their original creators.

This is wonderful for creators and subscribers, but not necessarily ideal for HBO. In network TV, most creators are saddled with multi-production deals, which means they have to ditch their show after a season or two to begin work on another show. (Or sometimes, they just want to move on, or are pushed on.) In network TV, the whole process is geared to syndication, which means a successful show becomes an industry unto itself; the creator ultimately becomes just another name on the opening credits.

But not at HBO, and this then means that shows have organic life spans. They die after a few seasons ? effectively out of creative gas, but hopefully not before they have a syndication afterlif, too (both Sex and Sopranos will). The onus is on HBO to come up with more and more ideas simply as a function of filling the ever-emptying pipeline. That's a hugely expensive model (just ask the Big Four networks), and one fraught with risk. By adding another night, HBO would have doubled its financial burden, but may have lessoned its value to subscribers.

Meanwhile, there are always the miniseries and made-fors. Empire Falls (based on Richard Russo's Pulitzer Prize-winning novel) begins filming shortly, while HBO Films' American Splendor (Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner) and Real Women Have Curves arrive soon. The Mike Nichols-directed Angels in America will be a huge event in December. Deadwood, an '04 series arrival, is produced by one of the premier talents in all of TV, David Milch.

But what of the two newcomers this fall? Six million viewers (a record for an HBO series premiere) tuned in to Carnivàle, but the critical assessment was mostly if not universally unkind. ?A bloated mess? (Tim Goodman of the San Francisco Chronicle). ?Dusty fusty muddle? (Tom Shales of the Washington Post). ?Provocative, nicely produced, too slow? (me).

K Street appears to have been met with befuddlement. As in, ?What the hell is this?? To which I say, who the hell cares? K Street may be a strange brew, but so was Curb Your Enthusiasm not so very long ago. If the producers can somehow strike a balance between the warring elements of make-believe and true life, then this show could be a winner, too.

And yes, HBO could certainly use a few more of those right about now.