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BY ANTHONY CRUPI
Although DVRs have found limited acceptance ? depending on who's doing the counting, there are less than 700,000 of them deployed in TV households nationwide ? time shifting devices have instilled in network types the sort of free-floating dread normally reserved for bone marrow transplants and that Jimmy Kimmel show.
While it's admittedly a lot of fun to watch the network suits sweat DVR out, the situation is far from hopeless. A study by the Yankee Group, ?The Death of the 30-Second Commercial,? maps out strategies for expanding on the traditional ad approach; the trick, it seems, is to supplement the 30-second spot, not supplant it.
According to Yankee analyst Adi Kishore, who authored the report, agencies will have to resort to unconventional marketing efforts to reach consumers with itchy trigger fingers.
Many of the strategies he endorses have already been kicked around to some extent. Product placement is rampant, network hits such as 24 and Alias have each dedicated an episode to a single wrap-around sponsor and a number of tech firms have begun to work out the bugs in the targeted ad space.
?The bulk of what we'll see in the next year or so will be branded entertainment,? Kishore says. ?It's what television is comfortable with.?
He believes that secure DVR downloads will also provide a viable marketing avenue, with the added advantage of providing advertisers with ?exceptional viewership metrics.? Because DVR penetration is still so low (less than 2%), that will be one of the last strategies to be adopted.
Analysts and admen aren't the only ones pondering the end of traditional advertising. SeaChange director of broadband systems Joe Ambeault says that the industry is looking at DVR through the wrong end of the telescope.
?While the fast-forward button may be considered the bane of the TV business, we believe that there's a huge opportunity in the pause button,? Ambeault says.
Ads targeted to the appropriate demo can be as compelling as the programming itself, Ambeault adds.
In any case, any attempt to forestall the inevitable is a waste of effort. ?It's here and it's real, but it's not the end of the world. It's just television delivered in a more compelling way.?
Such assurances aside, Midstream president and CEO Ed Huguez understands the raw panic at the heart of the issue. ?There's uncertainty, and business people don't like uncertainty,? he says. ?Some people are going to remain scared until they see how effective [alternate] approaches will be.?
There's still an awful lot of time to plan for the coming storm. By 2006, DVR take rates are expected to exceed 20%, which means that ?the vast majority of households still will be viewing television the way they do today ? without the ability to fast-forward commercials,? Kishore concludes.
?The ad agencies really seem to get it,? he says. ?The networks, well, not so much. After years of doing business a certain way, everyone's going to have to learn a whole new skill set. And that has got to be intimidating.?
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