Don't Shoot The Messenger

Jim Barthold

Let's talk technology.

I know that's a strange notion for this space so I'll sugarcoat it with a whiff of insider information from a time when the cable industry was suffering yet another capability crisis.

Here's the skinny ...

In 1993, cable took a previously unexplored path and banded together to demand a digital standard, eventually birthing the Moving Pictures Experts Group - MPEG, as we all now know it.

As with any standards-setting process, things moved slowly, and the much-ballyhooed 500-channel digital rollout ground to a halt. Since this was understandable, it was with no small amount of surprise that an intrepid flack for a leading vendor fielded a call from a national publication Feb. 20, 1994, asking if the digital rollout was delayed and if the vendor was shipping boxes.

"Of course not," came the answer from several sources within the vendor, the flack being wise enough to never speak when there were more highly paid executives willing to assume the risk and the glory. "The industry wants a standard. There is no standard. You can't build products that meet a standard that doesn't exist."

End of story. It seemed so simple as to be laughable.

The next day the flack was attending a seminar when he checked for phone messages. He picked the most urgent.

"Call me right away," said an executive who had been involved with the previous day's interview. "The fecal matter is hitting the fan."

The flack called and was told, "The story ran."

"Was it accurate?"

"Yeah."

"What's the problem?"

"Our stock dropped six points."

The higher-ups, who no doubt could have provided a much clearer message to the reporter than that conveyed by the flack and the much-maligned exec, were incensed. Naturally, it was easier to beat the messenger than bite the bullet.

That night, the shaken flack confided to his wife,"I think I got fired today."

"Why?" she wondered.

"It had something to do with the truth and the obvious."

The flack wasn't fired. Instead, he had to field the knee-jerk "follow-up" questions from a trade press - this publication included - that should have known better but, since this technology story appeared in a major financial publication, decided it must have merit, must portend something, and they must inform their readers that you cannot build products to specifications that don't exist.

Regretfully, the flack was less than cordial on several occasions as he related: "There is no story. There is no standard. The industry wants a standard. There can be no boxes built to the standard until the standard is set. Is that difficult to understand?"

It was. Most publications went with the story.

Today's atmosphere bears a scary resemblance to those days. People who shouldn't know better still don't, and are stirring up doomsday predictions for an industry that is again late at delivering what it overpromised. And a trade press that should know better apparently doesn't, and is helping keep the rumors alive.

It's an unfortunate cycle. The industry needs money to pursue new opportunities, so it promises things it can't deliver but that sound good. The technologists shake their heads at the insanity, then set to work to solve the problem. The vendors drool and promise the impossible. The moneylenders go wild and throw money like confetti on astronauts.

Then things get delayed, everyone panics and starts pointing fingers, firing messengers and dumping stock.

When it comes to technology and the cable industry, there are some things set so deeply in stone that King Arthur could not pull them loose.

1. Technology will happen. It will be built. It will work, and it will do some of the things the non-technologists promised.

2. Technology will be late. The industry will be harried, embarrassed and vilified. And it won't work when it's first deployed, so people will be angry.

3. People will make millions of dollars.

4. People will lose millions of dollars.

5. People will lose their jobs.

The aforementioned flack ran across the aforementioned reporter just prior to the opening of the 1994 National Show in New Orleans and invited him to his company's exhibit.

"You'll see digital boxes," he said. "But they're not ready for rollout. There's still no standard."

To his credit, the reporter smiled and replied, "I don't even want to go there."

If more people thought that way, things would probably run a little more smoothly. At the worst, nothing would happen any faster than it does now anyway.