My Back Pages: Next Generation Systems?

By Paul S. Maxwell

Remember "convergence"?

Well, get ready for that...and much, much more.

(Without--I hasten to add for the constituent that currently counts, Wall Street--another rebuild; just via software applications.)

Back when what was ZDTV launched, someone stuck a mike in my face and asked me what I thought about convergence: "Uh, ain't gonna happen...at least not the way you think. Only thing that'll result from the collision of a computer monitor and a TV screen is a lot of broken glass."

Glib, and wrong. But kind of right, too. Convergence hasn't happened at all like many of us thought...

Instead, it has snuck up on us.

Convergence has happened...

So has the disintermediation that was promised by the Internet.

Just not like we thought.

Disintermediation bit the landline phone companies instead of cable. Wireless phones have replaced hard-wired landlines in a startling number of homes here and abroad.

Meanwhile, the Internet--or, more specifically, access to the Internet--saved cable companies.

Disintermediation (a big word used slightly off-kilter here to say: lost subs!) happened from the skies as DTH platforms put together video offerings that drained cable of subscriber growth...not to mention subscriber loss.

Meanwhile, real leadership in telecommunications--entertainment, content, connectivity and innovations--migrated overseas.

The South Koreans lead in broadband access and usage.

European cellular companies have been the leaders in wireless innovations and uses. And, right now, they are leading the transition to a marriage of fixed with wireless.

European DTH players have been the leaders in interactivity.

The only examples of one-upmanship here have been the deployment of PVRs (by satellite mostly) and VOD.

But, that's all about to change...if!

The "if" is whether or not cable operators here can look beyond satisfying Wall Street's quarterly earnings games to the real future of the business...which can be done.

With that in mind and building on a bedrock, the systems of tomorrow will be a bit different...Here's how:

• Smarter video package offerings aimed at real buying groups of consumer/subscribers.
• Multiple levels of broadband access with a low entry price point that beats the cost of a second telco landline and a high end that matches T-1s for a fifth of the cost.
• VOD with the ability--via unique storage at some point along the cascade of servers that serve, in turn, cable system head-ends, nodes and subscribers--(finally) to capture and store programs chosen by the viewer as well as the copyright deals with programmers.
• VOD windows that match the airlines (and, soon, secondary theater showings).
• Voice-activated navigation systems that are smarter than we are and work with "fixed" video monitors and the next step...
• VoIP with a full integration of "fixed" and "mobile" on handsets that, finally, are the only gadgets anyone needs...with the usability of e-mail, a mini-PC (or Mac), phone, picture taker/sharer, video receiver (all "cable" nets, too), audio recorder/receiver and more...the nirvana of one number is just around the corner for everything! And cable's infrastructure will deliver it (someday).

Unless the RBOCs get there first.

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