FEATURE STORY
HDTV's Star Still Rising Fast

Information continues to roll off the presses that HDTV is here, with broadband cable engineers playing a major role in its success.

In the past, when buying a TV set, the three main criteria for purchase were brand, price and screen size. According to a new Allied Business Intelligence study, "Residential Entertainment Technologies: Device Forecast, Convergence and Networking," the advent of digital technologies and HDTVs has triggered the TV industry to undergo massive technology transformations, with multiple display technologies, resolution specifications, aspect ratios, viewing angles and digital interfaces.

The study forecasts the following:

• HDTV is going to achieve encyclopedic market penetration in the next three to five years. Prices of HDTV products are declining by 13-15% each quarter, with newer features and functionality appearing continuously.
• The push from cable ops including Comcast, Time Warner and Cox will increase HDTV sales dramatically in the next five to 10 years and beyond;
• Large-screen LCD TVs (42 inches and above) will enter the market in 2003, and their 2007 revenues will be over 70% of overall LCD TV revenues, worldwide;
• Even with stringent competition from other technologies, the plasma TV market will grow 50% year after year for the next three years, after which the growth rate will drop down to 25% through 2007

MSOs: Articulate Your Value Propositions -- Despite the robust growth, there exist some roadblocks. "The various business and revenue models for each of the players still need to be examined in order for the HDTV industry to continue its rapid rise," Vamsi Sistla, a senior analyst, says. "The cable MSOs and broadcasters will also need to further articulate their value propositions."

The Content Issue Fades Further - Discreet, an HDTV program finishing vendor, said last week that it has recorded a significant increase in HDTV programming being finished on its systems over the last year. "Over the last 12 months we have seen a significant upsurge in HDTV prime time programming, and, according to our clients, a similar increase in the number of prime time shows being completed on our systems," says Martin Vann, a VP at Discreet.

Vendors Roll With the HD Bandwagon - Last week, Toshiba (www.toshiba.com) America Electronic Components announced a new single-chip high-definition digital multimedia decoder device with an integrated 64-bit 200 MHz MIPS-based RISC TX49 CPU, an MPEG-2 decoder and peripherals. Target applications include HD set-top boxes, HDTVs and other new applications requiring HD capabilities. Sample and volume production quantities of the device currently are available.

ENGINEERING NEWS
Can Cable Take Asset Management Real-Time?

Remember the once-a-year inventory check? It's a thing of the past for world-class companies. And should be for cable operators, too.

That's one of the messages from Broadband Services Inc. (www.broadbandsvc.com), which announced its new focus on asset management this week with a portfolio of supply-chain products and services aimed at the cable industry.

"The old paradigm was a spot-check at the first of the year," Andy Paff, CTO of Broadband Services, says. But just-in-time business practices, which have transformed inventory management from a quarterly to a daily --if not real-time -- event in other industries, are poised to do the same for cable, he believes.

The driver here is finance. Those extra set-tops sitting in the office or stacked in the system warehouse may be a nuisance to you. But they are generating depreciation expenses and consuming overhead, which makes them an enemy to your CFO.

A Different Heartbeat -- Walking the line between stock-outs (remember the fiber shortages?) and excess supply is tricky. But Broadband Services, using a J.D. Edwards enterprise resource planning (ERP) platform optimized for the cable industry, says it can help identify the "different heartbeats" of an operator's many supply chains and increase inventory turns, as a result.

"Level-loading" manufacturing cycles would benefit suppliers and operators, and be a healthy change from the status quo, Joshua Ginsberg-Margo, director of client services for Broadband Services, says.

"It's been a just-in-case, instead of a just-in-time scenario," he adds.

Burning Inventory -- Those rosier scenarios put many operators in the currently unpleasant position of "burning inventory down," Paff says. Some changes may be kicking in, however. In last week's earnings call, Motorola's broadband sector said operators are relying on shorter cycling times from order to delivery.

Shorter cycles suggest better forecasting. And that's the linchpin for more efficient procurement, says one veteran supply chain analyst.

In addition to nondeployed assets, Broadband Services also can track those assets once they've hit the field. The firm says it grafted the relational database functionality of geographic information service (GIS) technology onto a conventional design and drafting shop. The upshot? A solid foundation for operations support systems (OSSs).

"To start any of this OSS, you've got to know where your assets are," Paff says.

Broadband Services appears to be bringing these tools to market at the right time. Not only are operators scrambling to improve cash flow, but with the SCTE's (www.scte.org) own subcommittee on material management inventory (MMI) having closed its doors last summer, there's an opportunity for someone else to raise this banner.

Among topics that SCTE Director of Standards, Dr. Ted Woo, lists as outstanding in this arena are unified standards codes for warehouse stock and standardized training for material personnel. - Jonathan Tombes

CAREER ENGINEER
8,000 Square Feet of HD at the National Show

Building on the recently announced "plug-and-play" digital TV transition agreements between cable operators and consumer electronics manufacturers, the NCTA (www.ncta.com) will showcase the latest in HDTV with a centerpiece convention floor exhibit at the National Show this year.

Jointly produced by NCTA and CableLabs (www.cablelabs.com), the "HD Pavilion" will feature the latest in HD sets and programming and demos of HD equipment such as integrated set-top boxes, point-of-deployment (POD) modules, and other HD solutions.

The National Show is set for June 8-11, 2003, at McCormick Place in Chicago. The Pavilion will be centrally located on the exhibit floor, and covers 8,000 square feet. For more information, visit http://www.thenationalshow.com.

BROADBAND SOAPBOX
MPEG-2 Over IP vs. MPEG-2 Over RF

First off, a clarification: As both Harmonic's Pat Waddell and HFCNET's Max Morales pointed out in letters to Pipeline, our headline in last week's issue "Is IP Better than MPEG?" doesn't state the issue correctly. "You are talking about MPEG-2 over IP vs. MPEG-2 over RF. It is still MPEG-2 at its heart," Waddell says.

Morales puts it this way: "The question should be phrased, "Is it MPEG broadcast transport or IP streaming?' The reason it makes a big difference is that the answer to the question is simple, 'It's MPEG-4 over IP.'

"MPEG-4 Part 10, a.k.a. H.264, is set to revolutionize the video delivery industry. DVD quality video, at ~1.25 Mbps per stream with full viewer control and interaction capabilities is right around the corner," Morales adds. "The delivery mechanism to STBs, PCs, laptops, PDAs and numerous other web appliances will not be proprietary systems but rather good old Ethernet and TCP/IP. This change will revolutionize our industry as much or more than satellites and fiber ever did."

We appreciate the clarification from Waddell and Morales.

Here's another letter Pipeline received on how cable can best future-proof its video services:

Is It Time for IP Set-Tops/Residential Gateways? "MPEG has always played an important role in the delivery of video services. However, as the industry accommodates the exponential demand for packet-based services, the video network architecture will start shifting in a direction that is built upon the ease of entry into this sector by the various vendors which capitalize on the effortless use and implementation of an IP stack and will support these new services and their delivery components.

"One of the driving factors of this shift in architecture is the lack of available bandwidth attributed to the static nature of video on the access HFC, headend distribution as well as the core transport networks. Early Internet 'access' technology was based on a circuit based model where an X.X kbps circuit would be reserved between the subscriber and the access provider regardless of the actual utilization. As inefficient as this may sound, it was an important step that allowed the industry to put a perspective on the technology and make the move to standardized and packet-based services with the introduction of DOCSIS.

"Similarly, the entire video network had to go through various protocols and bit rate conversions from satellite and over-the-air to headend processing then onto the HFC or the transport network which being circuit-based introduced some of the same limitations we saw in the Internet world. But being inherently efficient and reliable, it was difficult to make the case for change to accommodate the constant lack of bandwidth. Today, MPEG video services are increasing steadily while packet-based services are increasing exponentially. From DOCSIS data and PacketCable voice to GigE based VOD services and Interactive content, the reduction in price of all IP based delivery components, as per Moore's Law, as well as the constant improvements on the reliability and availability of these devices is making the shift in architecture inevitable.

"Considering that it will take some time for the technology to mature, such shift constitutes several preparatory steps that will allow a smooth transition while continuing to capitalize on the advantages of both architectures. In order to future proof the video network, it is important to consider the appropriate changes in the HFC access, headend distribution and transport core.

"In the HFC access, the change will be restricted to the customer premise equipment where the HFC is mostly upgraded to provide two way communications, initially to accommodate the cable modem subscribers. A 100% upgraded plant will be required to avoid losing video subscribers or ending with a hybrid headend distribution network.

In the headend distribution network, GigE aggregation and switching is becoming an integral factor to the available VOD delivery platforms as well as switched broadcast implementations and nPVR. All distribution products are adopting the change by making GigE ports readily available on the input and output of each device, including statistical multiplexers, edge QAM devices and so on. An important point to consider is the fact that IP based aggregation and switching will be needed to capitalize on the advantages of IP's any in to any out architecture.

On the digital transport rings, it follows suite to consider a packet based solution that will leverage the advantages of the protected sub 50ms recovery times as well as the capability to over-provision services without the associated circuit-based bottle necks. High density IP ports as well as local and remote switching capabilities are very important factors to consider.

"In order to avoid unnecessary CAPEX and OPEX costs, we can start future proofing our networks with a strategy that addresses our immediate needs in such a way that will produce the appropriate outcome. Plant upgrades for example should be done for the immediate need of increasing data subscribers' penetration rates. In the distribution network, GigE based VOD will force various implementation steps that are ultimately in the right direction. Finally on the transport side, a standard based packet solution will currently provide excellent benefits in VOD propagation, data services and digital video services. All while providing a foundation that will scale and be versatile enough to accommodate on demand IP based video services when needed.

However, the process is dependant on several important players in this domain starting with content providers, broadcasters, MSOs, vendors and industry organizations which have to synchronize their efforts to realize these benefits. For now, MPEG delivery of video has several unavoidable benefits, but the case for IP delivery is rapidly getting better. Is it time for IP set-top boxes/residential gateways?"

-- Basil Badawiyeh, Corporate Engineer, Adelphia Communications

If you'd like to contribute to this topic, send an e-mail to . All letters may be published, and may be edited for style or length.

SCTE ANNOUNCEMENTS
Hear from Industry Leaders at SCTE's Expo

Charles Dietz (senior VP, engineering, Insight Communications), David M. Fellows (CTO, Comcast Cable Communications), Sudhir Ispahani (chairman and CTO, United Pan European Communications), and Michael LaJoie (executive VP, advanced technology, Time Warner Cable) will be featured in a panel discussion at SCTE's Annual Engineering Conference on Monday, May 12. Independent technology analyst and author Leslie Ellis will moderate the CTO Panel.

The Annual Engineering Conference -- featuring a keynote speech by Comcast CEO and President Brian Roberts -- will be held during SCTE's 20th Anniversary Cable-Tec Expo, May 11- 14 at Philadelphia's Pennsylvania Convention Center. Register online for Expo by May 2 and save $100 at http://expo.scte.org.

Looking for a New Job? Need to Fill a Position? -- Visit the official SCTE Job Bank powered by BroadbandCareers.Com, now connected to an expanded Broadband Careers Network of seven affiliated job banks. Job seekers: Submit résumés and browse thousands of companies in 10 industry categories, including network operators, manufacturers, contractors and consultants. Plus, you'll receive notification of relevant job postings. Employers: Post job listings and company profiles and view a résumé database of more than 21,000 engineers, technicians, managers and installers. Check it out at www.scte.org.

SCTE's Recommended Practices for Optical Fiber Now Available -- Order your copy of the third edition of SCTE's Recommended Practices for Optical Fiber Construction and Testing manual and find out about proper construction and testing procedures, including cable handling, cable placement and maintenance and emergency restoration. Order online at www.scte.org/acb/stores/2/product1.asp?SID=2&Product_ID=253, or call .

Sponsor the Tom Polis Golf Tournament -- Although registrations for the second-annual golf tournament in memory of former SCTE President Tom Polis are sold out, you can help sponsor the event. All proceeds from the tournament, taking place on Mon., July 7, in Kennett Square, PA (suburban Philadelphia), will go to the Chester County, PA, branch of Young Life, a Christian youth organization, and a new scholarship program in Tom Polis' name. To sponsor the tournament, e-mail Mark Manning at . For more information on the tournament, visit http://www.scte.org/news/detail.cfm?ID=178.

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