Just when all the talk about cable began to center on its new broadband adventures, three ancient issues ? consolidation, regulation and program carriage ? are back in the headlines.
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Most of the systems in Europe are up for grabs, not for lack of growth potential but for lack of liquidity on their balance sheets. And two industry giants ? Liberty Media and AOL Time Warner ? are said to be on the prowl for acquisitions both here and abroad.
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The FCC March 14 began a process to deregulate cable Internet access that has the telcos breathing fire again for similar treatment.
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And once again, George Steinbrenner is battling the Dolan family's Cablevision Systems to gain carriage for the games of his New York Yankees.
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The merger stuff is complicated, because almost the whole world is at stake. Liberty's John Malone first tried to corner the German cable market (Deutsche Telekom's 10 million subs), but backed off when the government pushed him for an early entry into telephony. Now he has turned his attention to the U.K., where both operators, including one 25% owned by Liberty, have long been a-courting. But they're also being pressured by bottom-fishing bondholders to restructure. They need a new infusion of capital, and Malone or AOL are the most likely candidates.
But that's not all. It was also reported last week that Dr. Malone would like to operate on AOL TW, or at least win back voting control of Liberty's AOL shares. The theory goes that voting power would automatically qualify Malone for board membership, where he could join Ted Turner to help turn around AOL's sagging stock (down 75% from the 1999 high of $96).
Compounding its problems, AOL has been in talks to keep Newhouse from breaking up its long-term partnership and leaving the TW Cable fold with some 2 million subscribers and more than $1 billion in annual revenue. If that happened, AOL's appetite for acquisitions would increase. Some struggling shareholders of Adelphia March 27 began hoping for such a scenario when ADLAC shares fell 29%, to $16.70, on a massive 61 million shares volume, after revelation of an additional $2.3 billion of debt.
Back in Washington, D.C., a hands-off FCC led by conservative Commissioner. Michael Powell, doesn't want cable systems to pay high-speed-data franchise fees ? or homage ? to any state or city authority. If there weren't so much investor preoccupation with disappointing earnings, goodwill write-offs and balance sheet debt (1990-'92 is back), operators might get credit for the federal largesse. Even if telcos win their fight for equal opportunity for their DSL offerings, cable figures to get a bigger share of that market.
The Yankees-Dolan conflict in New York makes that old Disney-Time Warner thing a tempest in a teapot. With a famed, and feisty, cable guy (Leo Hindery) on his side, Steinbrenner is trying to establish his own cable sports network, after reclaiming the rights from Cablevision. The Dolans refuse to pay the price, a strategy that has worked for them in the past. I'm betting they eventually work out a compromise, for the fans and for the money.
Analyst Paul Kagan is an active investor and money manager and often owns securities mentioned in his columns. He may buy or sell before and after the columns are published, and his positions may change at any time. Kagan owns shares in all the companies mentioned above, except for Newhouse and the New York Yankees (for whom he has rooted since growing up in the Bronx). Information in his columns does not represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities, nor is it a solicitation of any securities transaction. Kagan is vice chairman of Primedia Ventures, an affiliate of the owner of Cable World.
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