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Why I Think the Telcos Will Win

JIM BARTHOLD

For some reason, people ask me who will win the high-speed data battle.

Being a journalist, I give substantially fuzzy answers that let me maintain neutrality while appearing opinionated.

That's changed. I'm telling you right now the telephone companies will win.

It probably won't be those dinosaurs who split from AT&T and proceeded to demonstrate just how slowly an industry can crawl. It won't be the ones who are still finding ways to perfect ceiling wax and standardize DSL.

It'll probably be some newcomer CLEC or wireless provider who scans the field of competition, belches a self-confident chuckle at the bozos engaged in battle, then rolls up its sleeves, wades in and kicks butt.

It won't have anything to do with technology. Winning rarely does. Beta's audio and video quality were superior to VHS. Apple made computing easy. How do you tape your movies or write your memos? The easy, superior way, no doubt - VHS and PC.

So don't rail about those flexible, powerful, future-friendly and superior hybrid fiber/coax networks and nodes that can be sliced and diced and DOCSIS standards and cable's early lead. In the end, it won't matter.

Here's why. It has to do with my wife, my mother, Christmas and Comcast It began when my wife suggested - honestly, she suggested it - that we combine with my sister and give my mother a year's worth of Comcast service as a Christmas gift. And then renew it every year.

Since my doctors don't like me to get excited, I let my better half call Comcast She was put on hold. Then she got a human being who listened to her idea. And put her on hold. Then she got another human being who listened to her idea and said she'd have to check with her supervisor or the legal department or somebody because she'd never heard of giving cable modem service as a Christmas gift. And put her on hold.

By then she'd gleaned that there was a deal for a free first month and three months at half price for those who paid up front. It just wasn't at all certain that a person wanting to pay for a year up front as a gift could do it.

While she was listening to music and messages about how important her call was - her first experience with Comcast - I used my cable modem to check in on Verizon's DSL offers. I learned that service wasn't available in Mom's neighborhood. Naturally.

I relayed this to my wife, still sitting with a phone growing from her ear, then returned to my Saturday newspaper where I could surreptitiously gloat that it wasn't me, this time, dealing with these folks.

Finally, the service rep returned with what seemed like good news. We could enroll my mother, but she had to be in the room when we did it. Sorry if it's a gift. Sorry if you want to pay for it. The recipient must be there to acknowledge it.

That actually was not a big deal, considering my mother lives nearby and it was a tough gift to keep secret. Except she was at home caring for a sick husband and a sick Doberman - not necessarily in that order - and couldn't get free.

Fortunately, the next Monday was a school holiday, and my wife, free of kindergarten children, could get my mother, make the call and set this thing up with the adults at Comcast

She thought.

By Monday I'd managed to break a tooth, thus I passed my mother rounding the corner on the way to our house as I drove to the dentist, who didn't fix my tooth but gave me a painful cleaning, complete with lecture, and another appointment. I returned to find my wife on the phone with Comcast where she'd been going through the same rigmarole she'd started the previous Saturday, only this time she was fervently wishing she'd broken a tooth and got to go to the dentist.

It seems it didn't matter my mother was present, as ordered. It didn't matter we were willing to pay up front. It didn't matter that we knew what we wanted and what Mom's computer could handle; we couldn't buy her a year's worth of Comcast - with plans to make it a lifelong gift.

Why? I'm not really sure, having avoided phone contact. My wife said something about not being ready where my mother lives and they'd be ready if she called next week - which makes no sense.

As a result, we left it like that. We'd have to call back a third time - with my mother in tow - a week later to learn if we could pay for a year's worth of Comcast - with plans to make the gift evergreen.

The telephone companies are bad. But do you really think they can't beat this?

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